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26 Nov 2024

26 Nov 2024

AUD/NZD: RBNZ stuck in reverse

In its final meeting of 2024 the RBNZ delivered another outsized rate cut with today’s 50bp reduction lowering the Official Cash Rate to 4.25%. Interest rates had peaked at 5.50% in NZ, but since turning course in August the RBNZ has delivered 125bps worth of easing in quick time as it looks to move settings out of the very ‘restrictive’ territory they were in. As a result, the RBNZ’s OCR is now below the RBA’s cash rate (now 4.35%) for the first time since mid-2013. And the gap should continue to widen, in our view, with the RBNZ set to...

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26 Nov 2024

The ‘tariff man’ is back

• US tariffs. Markets rattled by President-elect Trump’s announcement tariffs would be imposed on Mexico, Canada & China on his first day.• USD firmer. The move supported the USD & weighed on cyclical currencies like AUD & NZD. Negative risk sentiment saw the JPY outperform.• Data flow. Today, the monthly AU CPI is due. RBNZ also expected to cut rates again with a 50bp reduction predicted by analysts. Markets were rattled yesterday after President-elect Trump fired a few shots in his post-election trade war. Via social media Trump stated that to curb the inflow of drugs and migrants he would...

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26 Nov 2024

‘Tariff Man’s’ Return Rocks Currency Markets

Donald Trump’s threat to raise consumption taxes on a range of goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China is still sending shockwaves across currency markets. The dollar is up roughly a percentage point against its North American and European counterparts after the president last night said he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on all imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10 percent on Chinese goods, accusing the countries of allowing illegal migrants and drug traffickers into the US. In a break with long-standing Republican orthodoxy – most clearly under Ronald Reagan – this would raise trade...

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