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20 Nov 2024

20 Nov 2024

Geopolitical jitters

• Market jitters. Geopolitics & ‘hawkish’ macro signals dampened sentiment & supported the USD overnight. AUD unwound yesterday’s uptick.• USD trends. The pricing in & enacting of the Trump policy agenda, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, is a recipe for lingering USD strength.• Central banks. Odds of another near-term rate cut by the BoE & US Fed were pared back. Markets only fully discounting a RBA move by July. A few market jitters returned overnight with the rebound in risk sentiment late in the previous days trade fading. Concerns about an escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict is a factor keeping traders...

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20 Nov 2024

Geopolitical Concerns Ebb, Markets Rewind

Financial markets are recovering from yesterday’s knee-jerk geopolitical selloff, with the dollar snapping out of a three-day losing streak, Treasury yields marching higher, and North American equity benchmarks setting up for a positive open. Oil prices are slumping on a dissipation in risk premia after Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said his country was ready to discuss a possible cease-fire in Ukraine with US President-elect Donald Trump, and safe-haven currencies are giving back their gains. Yield differentials continue to move in the dollar’s favour as traders pull back on expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the earliest year-ahead outlooks...

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