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18 Nov 2024

18 Nov 2024

Noise vs Signal

• Partial bounce. Various ‘Trump trades’ backpedaled overnight with US yields & the USD a little lower & equities higher. AUD & NZD benefited.• RBA trends. Latest research from the RBA shows monetary policy is just as potent here as elsewhere. But the RBA didn’t raise rates as high.• AUD impulses. Higher for longer RBA should be AUD supportive against EUR, NZD, CAD, & CNH. This can help counteract positive USD vibes. The post US-election ‘Trump trades’ paused for breath with many of the underlying assets backpedaling a little at the start of the new week. There was no major...

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18 Nov 2024

Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Ebbs

The dollar is trading below last week’s one-year high this morning, with softness in equity markets helping limit marginal flows into the US financial system. The S&P 500 has given back more than half of its post-election gains on a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy – and some scepticism on the earnings front – ten-year Treasury yields are holding at around 4.46 percent, and risk appetite is ebbing across a range of asset classes. Data last week showed the US economy maintaining strong underlying momentum. Retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, suggesting that consumer demand is...

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