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01 Nov 2024

US Payrolls Reflect Temporary Dislocations

The US employment engine slowed sharply in October, but the impact on markets looks relatively modest thus far, given that investors had been braced for a weaker payrolls report, with hurricane-related effects widely expected to combine with the ongoing Boeing strike to bring job-creation rates down. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 12,000 jobs were added in the month – representing an undershoot relative to the 100,000-consensus forecast – but the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, and the labour force participation rate inched only slightly lower, suggesting that labour market internals remained relatively...

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Stress Climbs in Currency Markets

The dollar is holding steady and measures of expected currency volatility are ratcheting higher as global investors go to ground ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls report and next week’s presidential election. Ten-year Treasury yields are edging closer to the 4.30-percent threshold after softening briefly earlier in the week, North American equity markets are setting up for a defensive move after a series of mixed earnings reports from the likes of Microsoft and Meta, and oil prices are pushing higher on reports of a potential Iranian escalation in its ongoing tit-for-tat cycle with Israel. Forecasts for job creation in this...

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