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27 Oct 2024

US election: FX inflection point

The US Presidential Election is almost upon us with the vote held next week (5 November US time). While it has been tracked closely in the media for some time the same can’t be said for markets. Other macro and geopolitical developments such as the US/global interest rate cutting cycle, the situation in the Middle East, and macro goings on in China were front-of-mind for most of the past few months. But with the finish line nearing participants have finally been more seriously casting their eye over how the election could pan out and what it may mean for the...

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US data & election in focus

• Mixed moves. US equities consolidated while bond yields nudged up. USD firmer driven by USD/JPY. AUD & NZD lost some ground on Friday.• US elections. US heads to the polls in just over a week. Trump is ahead in the battleground states. Volatility likely over the period ahead.• Event radar. Locally, Q3 CPI is due (Weds). Offshore, US GDP & non-farm payrolls are released, as is EZ GDP/CPI & China PMIs. BoJ also meets. Markets were rather subdued on Friday with US equities consolidating (S&P500 flat, NASDAQ +0.6%) and bond yields unwinding the previous day’s dip (US 10yr +3bps...

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