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23 Oct 2024

23 Oct 2024

Pressure building

• Negative vibes. Wobbles across risk markets with US equities slipping back overnight. Higher US yields supported the USD. AUD under pressure.• Macro trends. Bank of Canada cut rates by another 50bps. Global PMIs due today. US Fed easing expectations have been pared back.• US election. Presidential election fast approaching. Odds of a Trump win & Republican sweep on the rise. This is also boosting the USD. A few wobbles across markets overnight. Base metal and energy prices slipped back, and a selloff in tech stocks weighed on the US equity market with the NASDAQ (-1.6%) underperforming the broader S&P500...

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23 Oct 2024

Bank of Canada Delivers Outsized Cut

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by an outsized 50 basis points this morning, broadly matching market expectations and triggering a small drop in the loonie. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers acknowledged a broad-based slowdown in Canada, noting that consumption is declining on a per-capita basis, the labour market is “soft”, and the “economy continues to be in excess supply”. Near-term growth expectations were revised down. Updated projections in the accompanying Monetary Policy Report showed the Bank’s economists expect growth to end 2024 at 1.8 percent – down from the previous 2-percent estimate....

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23 Oct 2024

Dollar’s Relentless Advance Continues

Demand for the dollar keeps climbing. With less than two weeks to go before the next Federal Reserve meeting and the US presidential election, global investors are piling into the greenback, cutting wagers on an aggressive easing cycle, and betting that the next administration’s policy mix will inflict serious damage on other major economies while generating higher levels of inflation at home. The DXY dollar index is up almost 4 percent from its late September low, options markets are pointing to a growing appetite for hedges against extreme moves around the polling date, and currencies that have strong trade links...

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