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22 Oct 2024

US election on the horizon

• Treading water. US equities consolidated. Yields generally ticked up. EUR & JPY softer. AUD & NZD unwind some of the falls from yesterday.• US politics. US election less than 2 weeks away. Odds of a Trump/Republican win on the rise. We don’t think the USD is fully factoring this in.• Macro events. Bank of Canada expected to cut rates by 50bps tonight. RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks in the morning. Global PMIs also due tomorrow. Most major markets have been in a bit of a holding pattern over the past few sessions given the lack of fresh top tier economic...

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Bond Turbulence Roils Currency Markets

Bond markets continue to puke like the cast of Family Guy after drinking Ipecac*. The ten-year US Treasury yield is holding above the 4.2-percent threshold this morning – up from 3.6 percent in mid-September – after a violent bond selloff during yesterday’s session, and a widely-watched measure of Treasury yield volatility – the MOVE index – is pushing higher as traders brace for more turbulence. Currency markets are reacting accordingly. The dollar is outperforming most of its major rivals, keeping the euro and pound stuck near recent lows as rate differentials tilt in America’s favour. The yield-sensitive yen is coming...

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