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09 Oct 2024

US inflation & the USD

• Mixed fortunes. Equities in China tumbled, while the US S&P500 hit a record. US bond yields rose, supporting the USD. AUD lost ground.• RBNZ cuts. RBNZ slashed rates by 50bps. The harsher NZ economic climate points to more cuts. Diverging trends point to a higher AUD/NZD.• US CPI. US inflation in focus. Headline CPI projected to slow, while core CPI forecast to hold steady. US yields & USD will be sensitive to the data. A mixed performance across global markets over the past 24hrs. After its stellar run equities in China tumbled (CSI300 -7%) because of ongoing uncertainty regarding...

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Diminished Rate Cut Hopes Weigh on Risk Appetite

The dollar is heading toward an eighth day of gains as fixed-income traders pull back on monetary easing expectations and brace for hawkish undercurrents in this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding above the 4-percent threshold, North American equity futures are softening on the prospect of renewed antitrust action against Google’s parent company, and most major currencies are stuck in a defensive posture against the almighty greenback. In theory, minutes taken during last month’s Fed meeting should be stale on arrival, but could move markets nonetheless. Policymakers ultimately opted for an outsized half-percentage-point rate cut in...

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