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17 Sep 2024

US Retail Sales Climb, Canadian Inflation Slows More Than Expected

US retail spending climbed last month, suggesting that underlying consumer demand continues to play a supportive role in powering growth – but gains were somewhat mixed below the headline level, suggesting that Federal Reserve officials are likely to downplay its accuracy in depicting underlying fundamentals ahead of tomorrow’s decision. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, so-called “control group” retail sales sales – with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded – rose 0.3 percent in August, matching forecasts set at 0.3 percent. Total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.1 percent on...

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Currency Markets Turn Jittery Ahead of Fed

Markets are caught in an uneasy equilibrium as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting. The dollar is changing hands at its weakest levels since January, the Japanese yen is retreating from yesterday’s high, both the euro and pound are consolidating their gains, and emerging market currencies are broadly on the defensive as traders cut risk into tomorrow’s decision. The scale of tomorrow’s rate cut remains deeply uncertain, but futures-implied odds on a 50 basis-point adjustment have climbed above 70 percent. This has very little to do with incoming economic data – no first-tier releases have been published – and...

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