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30 Aug 2024

US Inflation Eases, Leaving Policy Expectations Intact … For Now

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued its moderation in July, helping ratify market expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the central bank’s September meeting, without bolstering the case for a bigger move. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent from the prior month, aligning with market forecasts for a maintenance of June’s pace. On a year over year basis, core price growth fell to 2.6 percent, slightly below economist estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.2 percent relative to the prior month,...

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Dollar Reverses Higher as Economy Refuses to Slow

The dollar looks set to close out August on a slightly stronger footing as signs of economic resilience help bolster the case for a more cautious rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve. Treasury yields are ratcheting incrementally higher, stock markets are advancing – led by the biggest technology names – and most major currencies are trading sideways ahead of the North American open. Yesterday’s data releases showed the US economy defying the doom-and-gloom crowd. Real gross domestic product growth was revised upward for the second quarter from 2.8 percent to 3.0 percent, accelerating sharply from the first quarter’s 1.4 percent...

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