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15 Aug 2024

15 Aug 2024

US recession risks continue to fade

• US data. Positive US jobless claims & retail sales data has further reduced recession fears. US equities jumped up, as did bond yields. USD firmer.• AUD outperformance. Another solid Australian jobs report helped the AUD hold its ground against the USD & strengthen on the crosses.• RBA speakers. Gov. Bullock & others testify to Parliament. Domestic conditions still suggest the RBA is on a slightly different path to its peers. A positive jolt across risk markets with a few more US data points reducing fears a recession is imminent. Initial jobless claims (the gauge of how many people are...

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15 Aug 2024

Volatility Subsides As Inflation Dust Settles

Price action is slowing in financial markets after yesterday’s US inflation report definitively cleared the way for a September rate cut, yet stopped short of justifying an unusually-large half-percentage-point move. Both the headline and core consumer-price indices rose at the slowest pace in three years in July, but shelter costs failed to match the prior month’s swift deceleration, putting the onus on forthcoming labour market data to determine whether a faster pace of easing is justified. The dollar is holding near an eight-month low, Treasury yields are little changed, and stock market futures are setting up for an incrementally-stronger open....

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