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14 Aug 2024

14 Aug 2024

RBNZ kicks off its easing cycle

• Steady ship. US CPI largely as expected. Consolidation in markets. NZD underperformed. This also exerted a bit of pressure on the AUD.• RBNZ cut. RBNZ delivered a 25bp cut & flagged many more to come. Fundamentals between AU & NZ are diverging. This is AUD/NZD positive.• Data flow. Today, the volatile AU jobs report, China activity data, UK GDP, & US retail sales are due. A couple of US Fed members also speak tonight. The latest US CPI inflation report was in focus overnight, and the largely as anticipated results generated a rather benign response. The annual pace of...

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14 Aug 2024

AUD/NZD – RBNZ joins the rate cut club

Another one bites the dust with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand today joining the likes of the Bank of Canada, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England in kick starting its monetary policy easing cycle. The RBNZ delivered a 25bp reduction, lowering the official cash rate to 5.25%. The RBNZ went hard and early during the interest rate hiking phase, and the negative impacts from 15-months of very ‘restrictive’ settings are being felt across the NZ economy. The previously reluctant RBNZ has (finally) seen the light, something we believed was a matter of time (see Market Musings:...

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14 Aug 2024

US Inflation Matches Forecasts, Leaving Policy Expectations Stable

Consumer price growth slowed as expected in the United States last month, keeping the Federal Reserve on a heading toward easing policy in September. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.2 percent in July from the same period last year, and climbed 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was precisely aligned with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed 2.9 percent on a year-over-year...

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14 Aug 2024

Risk Appetite Rises Ahead of US Inflation Print

Investors are struggling to restrain themselves ahead of consumer inflation data that is expected to help clear the way for a jumbo-sized rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. Treasury yields are sliding, equity indices are setting up for a positive open, and risk proxies like the Canadian dollar are advancing as market participants double down on a soft landing scenario in the US. The trade-weighted dollar is down roughly half a percentage point from Monday’s level after producer prices rose by less than forecast in July, pointing to a continued easing in underlying inflation pressures. The core producer...

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