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15 Jul 2024

15 Jul 2024

Macro vs politics

• Trump trades. US long end yields, equities, & the USD tick up. Weekend developments have bolstered expectations Trump might be re-elected.• Fed pricing. US data is supporting Fed rate cut bets. Last week US CPI underwhelmed. The divergence with the RBA is underpinning the AUD.• Event Radar. US retail sales due tonight. ECB meets on Thursday night. Q2 NZ CPI (Weds) & the Australian jobs report (Thurs) also on the schedule. Economic trends butted up against geopolitical developments at the start of the new week. These cross-currents look set to be in place for some time. After losing more...

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15 Jul 2024

Trump Assassination Attempt Bolsters Dollar

The dollar has snapped a three-day losing streak and global markets are retracing their steps after the attempted assassination of former president Donald Trump at a campaign event in Pennsylvania over the weekend. Treasury yields are up, equity futures are heading toward a positive open, oil prices are up, and the Mexican peso is down a little over 1 percent as we go to print. Most observers believe that the attempt – bolstered by a dramatic photo of a bloodied Trump triumphantly holding his fist aloft – will translate into a bump in the polls, making it more likely that...

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