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05 Jul 2024

Disappointing Jobs Numbers Drive Yields Lower

US labour markets slowed more than expected in June, bolstering market odds on a rate cut from the Federal Reserve by September. On the headline level, the print was positive: according to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 206,000 jobs were added in the month, topping the 189,000 consensus forecast, and remaining well above the 120,000 that is generally believed sufficient to mechanically offset net growth in the labour force. Average hourly earnings climbed 0.3 percent month-over-month, down from 0.4 percent in the prior month, and were up 3.9 percent year-over-year. However, revisions to prior months saw overall...

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Dollar Falls As Payrolls Loom

The dollar is retreating and global stock markets are marching toward record highs ahead of a non-farm payrolls report that is expected to show US labour markets softening, helping set the stage for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve by the early autumn. The British pound is adding to its gains after Keir Starmer’s Labour Party absolutely crushed its Conservative opponents in yesterday’s British election, taking at least 410 seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. Traders expect Starmer’s government to usher in a period of relative political calm after 14 years of volatile Tory rule, with higher levels...

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