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25 Jun 2024

25 Jun 2024

Holding pattern

• Range trading. US equities rebound, while bond yields & the USD tread water. Upside surprise in Canadian inflation generated limited CAD impact.• AU CPI. May reading of the monthly CPI due today. Data will include more services prices. Consensus looking for annual inflation to re-accelerate.• US events. No major US data or speeches tonight. Durable goods (Thurs night AEST) & PCE deflator (Fri night AEST) the next key US releases. In the main global markets continue to range trade with Northern Hemisphere summer trading conditions kicking into gear. Unlike the modest falls across European equities (EuroStoxx50 -0.3%), US equities...

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25 Jun 2024

Canadian Inflation Tops Expectations, Lowering Rate Cut Odds

Canadian headline inflation unexpectedly accelerated last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada jumped – making a back-to-back rate cut at the central bank’s July meeting much less likely. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.9 percent on a year-over-year basis in May, up from the 2.7 percent increase recorded in April, and well above the 2.6-percent consensus expectation. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.6 percent. The print incorporated new consumer price index basket weights, but the statistical agency noted that the headline gain would...

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25 Jun 2024

Rebalancing Flows Drive Mixed Currency Outcomes

Month- and quarter-end rebalancing flows are driving the dollar down against most of its major counterparts this morning, providing a modicum of relief across a range of asset classes. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are edging higher after tumbling yesterday on a rotation out of technology sector stocks, Treasury yields are up almost imperceptibly, and the commodity complex is experiencing a mild bout of mean reversion. The Mexican peso is grinding higher after carry traders piled back in during yesterday’s session, seizing on wide rate differentials and falling volatility expectations to drive the exchange rate to a circa-1.4-percent gain. Investors...

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