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21 May 2024

21 May 2024

Data reinforcing central bank divergence

• Consolidation. US equities ticked up & based metals rose, while yields dipped despite ‘hawkish’ Fed rhetoric. USD & AUD tread water.• Divergence. Slower Canadian inflation bolstered BoC rate cut bets. Will today’s UK CPI do the same? Divergence with the RBA is AUD supportive.• RBNZ today. Rates expected to be held steady. Restrictive settings are working. Will the RBNZ tweak its forecast track to show earlier rate cuts? Another quiet night with limited net moves across the major markets. In contrast to the modest dip in European equities US stock markets ticked up again with the S&P500 (+0.3%) recording...

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21 May 2024

Canadian Inflation Falls Further, Bolstering June Rate Cut Odds

Canadian headline inflation decelerated again last month, and the underlying price indicators followed most closely by the Bank of Canada continued to weaken – helping clear the way for a rate cut in June. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7 percent on a year-over-year basis in April, down from the 2.9 percent increase recorded in March, and closely aligned with consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased 0.5 percent. Shelter costs again provided the biggest lift, with rents climbing 8.2 percent year over year, while mortgage interest costs rose 24.5 percent....

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21 May 2024

Cautious Fed Messaging Puts Markets on the Defensive

The dollar is inching off a five week low after a slew of Federal Reserve officials repeated their “higher for longer” mantra in a series of appearances yesterday, forcing markets to push rate cut expectations a little farther out. The greenback weakened in recent weeks as a slew of softer-than-anticipated data releases pointed to slowing economic momentum, but gained slightly during yesterday’s session as Federal Open Market Committee members Bostic, Daly, Jefferson, and Mester all said they would need to see more evidence of cooling inflation before contemplating an easing in policy. Markets are back to pricing in a little...

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