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15 May 2024

15 May 2024

US inflation jolts the AUD

• Market jolt. A slowdown in US inflation & weaker retail sales revived Fed rate cut expectations. US yields & the USD lower. Equities & AUD higher.• AUD outperformance. The backdrop & diverging monetary policy expectations have boosted the AUD. AUD/USD at a ~4-month high.• AU jobs. The monthly jobs report is due today. There have been some wild swings in recent months. A solid report could give the AUD more support. The latest read on US CPI inflation and retail sales took center stage overnight. And as we had been flagging in our recent Market Briefings and weekly Currency...

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15 May 2024

US Inflation Stabilises and Spending Slows, Supporting Fed Easing

Consumer price growth held steady and “control group” retail sales turned negative in the United States last month, suggesting that the economy is slowly losing momentum, and helping bolster the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.6 percent in April from the same period last year, up 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was precisely aligned with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of...

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15 May 2024

Bulls Stampede Into Inflation Data

Market optimism is rising ahead of a key US inflation report that is expected to show price pressures softening on a sequential basis in April. Our summary of updated estimates provided by the biggest global banks and investment firms suggests that the headline basket is seen rising 0.4 percent month over month, bringing the annual change down to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent in March. The core measure is believed to have climbed 0.3 percent, falling to 3.6 percent from 3.8 percent in the prior month. Traders are positioning for an asymmetric market reaction. A strong print could be seen...

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