New Year, New U-Turn
2024 is off to an inauspicious start. Ten-year Treasury yields are pushing toward the 4-percent threshold, equity futures are pointing to another day of losses, and risk-sensitive currency units are retreating against a resurgent dollar as traders turn incrementally more cautious on the likelihood of an imminent and aggressive easing cycle from the Federal Reserve. Investors are currently assigning circa-70-percent odds to a rate cut at the central bank’s March meeting, down from above 85 percent last week. The Fed will publish minutes taken during its December meeting this afternoon, providing insight into the thinking that motivated Jerome Powell’s dovish...