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06 Dec 2023

06 Dec 2023

Growth worries return

• Bond yields. Weaker than expected data & drop in oil has bolstered rate cut bets, pushing long-end bond yields lower once again.• Shaky sentiment. Negative sentiment gave the USD a bit of a boost. After clawing back ground earlier on, the AUD is back down where it was 24hrs ago.• AU GDP. Economic momentum has stepped down. While the growth outlook supports the case for no more hikes, RBA cuts could still be some time away. Global bonds have continued to power ahead. Weaker than expected data and an oil price slump has eased inflation worries, bolstered rate cut...

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06 Dec 2023

Bank of Canada holds, turns cautious

As had been widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 5 percent this morning, but language in the accompanying statement tilted in a modestly-dovish direction, helping ratify market expectations for rate cuts in early 2024.  Officials acknowledged signs of weakness in the economy, saying “Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year”. Government spending and new home construction were highlighted as helping cushion downside risks, but labour markets were seen softening, with...

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06 Dec 2023

Pivot expectations go global

The greenback is staging a modest recovery this morning – not because traders are suddenly coming to the realization that Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have overshot, but because expectations for other central banks are falling even faster. Investors expect six rate cuts from the European Central Bank next year after German factory orders fell unexpectedly in October, adding to a mountain of evidence suggesting that the powerhouse of the euro area economy is in recession. Demand for manufactured goods fell -3.7 percent, coming in well below the 0.2-percent increase expected by economists as machinery and equipment orders plunged. In...

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