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31 Oct 2023

US Fed on the radar

• Mixed markets. Equities higher & oil lower. Contrasting trends saw European & US yields diverge. USD firmer, with USD/JPY jumping up post the BoJ.• BoJ tweaks. The BoJ adjusted its yield curve control framework, but it wasn’t enough to appease FX markets. The USD move weighed on the AUD.• Fed in focus. Attention is on the US with data & Fed policy decision due. With no change in rates expected what Chair Powell says will be important. It was a rather placid end to another turbulent month for most asset classes. European and US equities edged higher with the...

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Canadian economy flatlines, driving loonie lower

The Canadian economy shrank unexpectedly in the late summer, helping ratify market expectations for a prolonged pause – and an eventual climbdown in rates from the Bank of Canada. Numbers released by Statistics Canada this morning show real gross domestic product remaining essentially unchanged in August after flatlining in the prior month, missing expectations for a 0.1-percent expansion. The retail sector lost 0.7 percent and accommodation and food services dropped 1.8 percent as higher borrowing costs and weaker wage growth impacted household spending. Manufacturing industries contracted 0.6 percent, and agriculture slipped 3.2 percent on declining prices and slower activity. An...

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Dollar eases amid heavy macro data flow

The US dollar and yields are edging lower after the US Treasury surprised investors by lowering its estimates for government borrowing in the fourth quarter, helping ease fears of a supply-led melt-up in rates. According to yesterday’s release, net issuance is expected to hit a record $776 billion over the final three months of the year, but this is down from the $852 billion projected in late July as higher-than-anticipated tax receipts help offset funding requirements. Tomorrow morning’s issuance plan – which will outline the cadence and scale of auctions – could have a more meaningful effect on the rates...

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