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27 Oct 2023

US consumer spending stays strong while income growth slows, weakening rate outlook

US consumer spending grew and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure accelerated as expected in September, but income growth slowed – helping ratify the case for a plateau in benchmark interest rates near prevailing levels. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by central bankers – rising 0.3 percent in September from the prior month, up 3.7 percent year-over-year – aligning perfectly with consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 3.4 percent from a year ago. Personal income rose 0.3 percent month-over-month, decelerating slightly from...

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Growing conviction in US “soft landing” supports risk appetite

Markets are trading with a mildly supportive tone this morning after yesterday’s third-quarter growth data showed US inflation pressures continuing to fade even as consumer spending remained robust – conditions closely resembling those the Federal Reserve has been working to engineer. After dropping almost ten basis points, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.86 percent, and most major currencies are strengthening against an incrementally weaker dollar. Equity futures are gaining ahead of the North American open on solid earnings guidance from Amazon and Intel, and oil prices are higher after the US launched “precision self-defense” strikes against two Iran-linked facilities...

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