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05 Oct 2023

05 Oct 2023

US payrolls in focus

• Relief continues. Bond yields, oil prices & the USD lost a bit more ground overnight. BoE & US Fed comments raise doubts about the extent of further hikes.• AUD recovery. The AUD has edged up a little against the USD & on most crosses. In addition to tonight’s US labour report, US CPI is released next week.• US payrolls. Based on where things are tracking we think a larger (more negative) USD reaction could occur if the US data underwhelms. Yesterday’s moves extended a bit further overnight with markets marking time ahead of tonight’s US jobs report (11:30pm AEDT)....

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05 Oct 2023

Markets reverse yesterday’s reversal

A global relief rally is unwinding as markets take a more skeptical view on the likelihood of a shift in Federal Reserve policy. Early in yesterday’s session, a series of data releases helped diminish expectations ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report and push odds on a final 2023 rate hike back below coin-toss levels: Payroll processing firm ADP said the private sector created just 89,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 160,000 or more. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) services index weakened more than projected. And West Texas Intermediate prices suffered the biggest reversal this year, falling by...

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