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14 Sep 2023

14 Sep 2023

AUD: Always darkest before the dawn

The AUD is battered and bruised. A combination of factors such as better-than-anticipated US data and a stronger USD, economic struggles in China and a weaker CNH, a lower JPY, some subpar local economic prints, and shaky risk sentiment on the back of the jump up in bond yields recently pushed the AUD to 2023 lows. While the extent of the USD strength and AUD weakness has been a bit of a surprise, the direction of travel was not. We repeatedly flagged that the AUD was set to go through a rough patch over Q3 as global inflation lingered and...

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14 Sep 2023

ECB: end of the line

• Positive vibes. Risk markets supported by signals last nights ECB rate hike could be the last, more policy easing in China, & positive US retail sales.• EUR & GBP softer. The shift in relative yield spreads has weighed on EUR & GBP. AUD has held its ground, with AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP rising.• Data pulse. Also helping the AUD was a positive local employment report. Today, the market focus will be on the August China activity data. It has been a busy 24hrs with several data releases and policy decisions coming through. On net, the events have supported risk sentiment...

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14 Sep 2023

Euro falls as ECB delivers dovish hike and US retail sales surge

As expected, the European Central Bank raised its inflation forecasts and hiked benchmark rates for a tenth consecutive time this morning – but also signalled its monetary tightening trajectory had reached a plateau, suggesting that further rate increases were unlikely.  In the statement setting out the decision, the Bank said updated staff projections show inflation averaging 5.6 percent in 2023, 3.2 percent in 2024, and 2.1 in 2025, with both 2023 and 2024 forecasts revised up in response to a rise in energy prices. Growth expectations were pushed sharply slower in response to a tightening in financial conditions and weakening...

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14 Sep 2023

Currency volatility falls after US inflation fails to surprise

A flurry of action after yesterday’s release of the August consumer price report ultimately left currency and fixed-income markets largely unmoved. The dollar is flat and front-end yields are edging up. Measures of implied volatility in the equity and currency markets are plumbing seasonal lows. Both the headline and core price indices accelerated somewhat as Saudi-led output cuts lifted oil prices and transportation services costs, but underlying inflation stayed at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, keeping policy expectations essentially unchanged. The central bank is still seen staying on hold next week, tightening again in November, and beginning...

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