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07 Sep 2023

AUD finding a base?

• Negative vibes. A more cautious tone overnight with equities & bond yields lower. The USD remains firm, with EUR & GBP weakening.• AUD consolidation. Despite the shaky risk backdrop the AUD has held its ground, albeit at low levels. A lot of negatives now look to be factored in• Event radar. AU business conditions, US CPI, AU employment, US retail sales, the ECB meeting, & the China activity data are due next week. A slightly cautious tone across markets overnight. Following on from the weakness in Asia the major European and US equity markets edged lower with the NASDAQ...

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Bank of Canada Governor says rates may be “sufficiently restrictive”

Governor Tiff Macklem said rates could be “sufficiently restrictive” in a speech this afternoon, implicitly raising the bar for further increases in the Bank of Canada’s incredibly-aggressive post-pandemic monetary tightening cycle. In the latest Economic Progress Report, delivered at the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, Macklem said “Monetary policy is working, and inflation is coming down. But we still have some way to go to restore price stability. With past interest rate increases still working their way through the economy, monetary policy may be sufficiently restrictive to restore price stability. However, Governing Council is concerned about the persistence of underlying inflation....

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A yen for change

Sometime in the mid-seventies, the Nobel prize-winning economist Simon Kuznets is believed* to have said that there were “four types of countries in the world: developed, underdeveloped, Argentina, and Japan”. Surprisingly, not much has changed in the intervening years – both economies remain truly exceptional along a number of dimensions, with the results playing out in the foreign exchange markets. The Argentinian peso has fallen so low that politicians are – again – campaigning on (probably misguided) pledges to peg the currency to the dollar. And the Japanese yen has led the developed world in relative weakness since the pandemic....

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Another day, another (more expensive) dollar

The greenback keeps moving from strength to strength, with the “US outperformance” trade gaining renewed momentum as risk appetite falls and signs of weakness grow more evident in other parts of the global economy. Equity futures are softening this morning as reports of a Chinese government ban on Apple devices drive the technology company’s shares lower. Yields are slightly lower at both the two- and ten-year horizons, and most major currencies are down against the dollar.  Yesterday, when the Institute for Supply Management said its index of service-sector activity had risen to a six-month high, with improvements seen in virtually...

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