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06 Sep 2023

06 Sep 2023

USD remains high

• Higher for longer. Solid US services ISM data & rhetoric from central bankers has boosted bond yields. The USD remains near its recent highs.• AUD stabilises. After a difficult run the AUD has consolidated, albeit at low levels. Q2 GDP was on net a bit better than expected with population growth supportive.• Event radar. RBA Governor Lowe gives his last speech (“Some closing remarks”) today. China trade & US jobless claims data are also released. The USD has held its ground and continues to track near multi-month or year-to-date highs against the other major currencies. Data wise, the US...

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06 Sep 2023

Higher for longer?

In the consensus view, the Bank of Canada is done hiking and will begin cutting rates by mid-2024 – and if you looked at the loonie’s reaction around 10:00 am this morning, it would seem that the central bank’s announcement was in line with that view. But with US Institute for Supply Management numbers landing at the same time and pushing the dollar higher against most of its major counterparts, overnight index swap rates – which Bloomberg uses to guide its famous/infamous WIRP function – might offer a cleaner read.  To us, it looks as if markets have simply pushed...

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06 Sep 2023

Bank of Canada holds, acknowledges easing in “excess demand”

10:45 EDT To sum up and close out today’s Bank of Canada action: – Markets are mostly convinced the Bank’s tightening cycle is done, and are now mainly concerned with adjusting bets on when the first rate cut might occur. Odds on a cut by January are creeping higher, but the consensus is anchored closer to mid-2024. – But policymakers cannot declare “mission accomplished” yet, and will need to maintain a rhetorically hawkish posture until the threat of an unwarranted easing in financial conditions has passed. – Two inflation reports, two jobs prints, a business outlook survey, and a number...

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06 Sep 2023

Dollar steamrolls global markets

The almighty greenback is holding near its highest levels since March this morning as rising oil prices and slower disinflation fears force Treasury yields upward. The major North American equity bourses are under pressure and risk-sensitive currencies are licking their wounds.  Half-hearted defence efforts from policymakers are doing little to reverse the tide. The euro is up just 0.2 percent after European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot warned markets could be “underestimating” the likelihood of a rate hike at next week’s meeting, and his colleague Peter Kazimir said he would prefer to “deliver another 25 basis points” and...

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