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22 Aug 2023

22 Aug 2023

Markets marking time

• Mixed signals. European equities rose, but US markets were a bit more cautious. Long-end bond yields eased. A softer EUR supported the USD Index.• AUD base? The consolidation in USD/CNH & firmer base metal prices helped the AUD tick up slightly. Offshore forces will drive the AUD near-term.• Event radar. European/US PMIs (today), trends in China, & speeches by Fed Chair Powell & ECB President Lagarde later this week are in focus. A mixed performance across markets with news flow limited. Bond moves remain in focus. Time will tell but from our perspective there are some tentative signs things...

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22 Aug 2023

US yields stabilize near 16-year highs, dollar weakens

Treasury markets are pausing for breath after a sell-off that drove yields to post-2007 highs, equity futures are seeing a modestly-stronger tech-powered open, and the dollar is slightly softer against its major counterparts. One-month implied volatility in the equity and currency markets remains depressed relative to history, even as the level of turbulence in Treasury markets hits elevated levels. This is reflective of the extent to which global rates are moving in sync with US yields, but also looks fragile as we move through the typical late-August lull and enter more strained global conditions in the early autumn. We rarely...

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