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04 Jul 2023

RBA holds fire

• US holiday. Quiet night across markets. Oil prices rose, EUR weakened, & the AUD bounced back following yesterday’s post-RBA meeting dip.• RBA holds firm. Cash rate held steady at 4.1%. We expect a 25bp hike in August when new inflation & labour market forecasts are produced.• US data flow. US FOMC minutes, JOLTs job openings, ISM services measure, & US labour market report due over coming days. With the US enjoying its 4 July holiday it was another quiet night across markets. The EuroStoxx50 eased (-0.2%), with cyclical sectors like industrials, materials, and financials underperforming. European bond yields were...

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RBA: Skips a beat

In what we believe was yet another finely balanced call the RBA held the cash rate steady at 4.1% at today’s meeting. This maintains the cumulative tightening delivered so far this cycle at 400bps. This is the sharpest RBA tightening cycle since at least the early 1980s, and we don’t think the RBA is done. The RBA once again noted that while inflation has passed its peak it “is still too high” and “will remain so for some time yet”. However, considering the sharp increase in rates that has already been put through and uncertainty around the outlook, a decision...

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