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07 Jun 2023

07 Jun 2023

Canaries in the central bank coal mine

• BoC hike. The ‘surprise’ move by the BoC has rattled markets. Bond yields have risen as markets adjust interest rate expectations.• AUD softer. AUD has given back a little ground. The shift in offshore pricing counteracts the change in RBA thinking. Q1 GDP was also weak.• Central banks. The US Fed, ECB & BoJ meet next week. Inflation is a hard nut to crack. Further upward adjustment in rates could weigh on risk sentiment. Markets came back to life overnight. Expectations that central banks have more work to do to get on top of high services/core inflation are growing....

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07 Jun 2023

Bank of Canada Hikes, Pushes Loonie Slightly Higher

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark overnight rate to 4.75 percent this morning, noting that “excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated,” and saying “monetary policy was not sufficiently restrictive to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation sustainably to the 2 percent target”. In the statement-only decision, officials said the economy grew at a 3.1 percent annualized pace in the first quarter – beating consensus expectations and the central bank’s forecasts – while household spending remained elevated. “Consumption growth was surprisingly strong and broad-based, even after accounting for the boost...

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07 Jun 2023

Rangebound Markets Await Bank of Canada Decision

With a paucity of potential volatility catalysts on the week’s calendar, markets remain broadly rangebound this morning. Equity futures are inching down ahead of the opening bell, Treasury yields are practically unchanged, and the dollar’s recent gains are fading relative to the euro and pound. Chinese exports fell dramatically in May, suggesting that a long-expected post-pandemic drop in Western goods demand is taking a toll on the world’s second-largest economy. According to data released by the Customs Bureau last night, exports fell -7.5 percent year-over-year in May, well beyond the -0.4 percent consensus, and the worst print since January. The country nonetheless...

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