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02 Jun 2023

Falling Rate Expectations Snap Dollar’s Momentum

Equity futures and risk-sensitive currencies rose slightly last night after the US Senate passed compromise legislation designed to raise the debt ceiling. The ironically-named Fiscal Responsibility Act, which moved through the voting process with extraordinary speed, will suspend the statutory limit on federal borrowing until January 2024, averting a possible default without imposing major constraints on government spending. The measure is now headed to the president for signature. But the real action came earlier in the day, when a series of data releases combined with increasingly-dovish Federal Reserve rhetoric to put Treasury yields and the dollar under pressure.Following Wednesday’s comments from...

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The RBA has more work to do

Since kicking its tightening cycle off in May 2022, the RBA has raised the cash rate by a cumulative 375bps. This has been the most abrupt rate hiking cycle since at least the 1980s, but there looks to be more work to do. Recent information is likely to force the RBA’s hand, and we expect another 50bps worth of rate hikes over coming months. This would take the cash rate from 3.85% to 4.35%, a high since late-2011, however higher household indebtedness means this level of rates should pack a far bigger punch than it used to. The upcoming 6...

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