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08 May 2023

AUD holding firm

• Calmer markets. US equities flat overnight, while oil & base metals edged a bit higher. US bond yields rose, with the AUD hovering just under ~$0.68• No credit crunch. Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey didn’t signal an imminent credit crunch. Rather, conditions are tightening inline with higher rates.• AUD events. Consumer sentiment, Q1 retail sales volumes, China trade data, & the Federal Budget released today. US CPI is out tomorrow night. A relatively quiet and uneventful start to the new week. Following the strong rise on Friday, US equities were flat overnight. By contrast, energy prices added to their...

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Chartbook: May 8

Exhibit 1 Speculators are doubling down on long-euro bets. Net Long (+) or Short (-) US Dollar Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, As at May 2, 2023 Exhibit 2 Economic surprise indices are diverging again. Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices, % Exhibit 3 Regional banks are still under pressure. KBW Bank Index Exhibit 4 Credit creation is slowing. Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Small, and Large and Middle-Market Firms Exhibit 5 But loan volumes haven’t crashed. 3-Month Net Change in Loans, All Commercial Banks, Billions USD Exhibit 6 And...

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Dollar weakens as markets brace for credit contraction

The dollar is weaker against all of its major counterparts – except the yen – this morning as investors await data that should confirm a sharp contraction in US credit growth after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in early March. Two- and ten-year yields are holding steady, futures are pointing to a mixed open for North American equities, and commodity prices are creeping higher. The yen reversed a brief post-Golden Week rally in the overnight session after a record of the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting showed officials remaining committed to “large-scale easing”, with supply chain constraints easing, commodity prices coming...

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