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04 May 2023

04 May 2023

US banking issues & another ECB hike

• US banks. Regional bank issues remain in focus. This has dampened risk sentiment, and is supporting expectations the Fed tightening cycle is over.• ECB hike. ECB raised rates by another 25bps. Tweaks to its guidance were viewed ‘dovish’, but we think this is a misread. President Lagarde was quite ‘hawkish’ with more rate rises expected.• AUD holding. AUD ticked up, with a bounce in AUD/EUR supportive. US non-farm payrolls released tonight. Strong data could question the markets rate cut bets. The re-emerging US regional banking sector concerns remain in focus. The issues continue to dampen risk sentiment, though FX...

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04 May 2023

Dollar weakens after Fed and ECB decisions match market expectations

The dollar is retreating for a third session, with all of its major counterparts recording gains on a Federal Reserve-driven drop in Treasury yields.  Oil prices are recovering after experiencing something resembling a flash crash around the Asia open last night, with prices plunging more than 7 percent. The move, which seemed to lack a fundamental trigger, saw closely-correlated currencies like the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone remain relatively unmoved, but left the West Texas and Brent benchmarks down roughly 15 percent year to date. The market has been hammered by a weakening demand outlook even as the OPEC+ group of...

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