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14 Feb 2023

Well-Prepared Markets Absorb Signs of Accelerating Inflation

US consumer prices rose by slightly more than forecast in January, but markets are reacting well – suggesting that expectations had climbed and risk had been sufficiently trimmed ahead of the release. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 6.4% in January from the same period last year, up 0.5% on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release projected a 6.2% annual gain and a 0.5% jump relative to December. A seasonally-adjusted 2.4 percent month-over-month gain in gasoline prices partially offset a...

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Roses are Red, Violets are Blue, We’re Watching Inflation, and You Should Too

Happy inflation day to all of you hopeless romantics out there. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release its consumer price index for January at 8:30 am. Economists think price growth will cool for a seventh consecutive month, with the headline measure increasing 6.2% year-over-year, down from 6.5% in December, and well below the 9.1% pace hit in June. The core measure is seen rising 5.4%, maintaining the prior month’s momentum. Markets seem comfortable with these expectations. Signs of nervousness disappeared over yesterday’s session, leaving equity futures up, Treasury yields down, and the dollar on the defensive. But...

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