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12 Jan 2023

Consumer Prices Cool As Expected, Triggering Modest Position Adjustments in Currency Markets

US consumer prices fell as expected in December, lending more plausibility to the Federal Reserve’s “soft landing” scenario, while leaving longer-term interest expectations largely unmoved relative to pre-release levels. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 6.5 percent in December from the same period last year, down -0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release projected a 6.5 percent annual gain and a -0.1 percent drop relative to November. A seasonally-adjusted -9.4 percent month-over-month drop in gasoline prices did a...

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Anticipation Builds Ahead of Critical US Inflation Report

Markets are on high alert ahead of what might be the post-pandemic world’s most consequential economic data release: the US consumer price index. Consensus estimates suggest headline prices fell 0.1 percent month-over-month in December, decelerating to 6.5 percent annualized from 7.1 in the month prior. Excluding food and energy, prices are expected to rise 0.3 and 5.7 percent. The risk of a violent adjustment in foreign exchange markets is real: an above- or below-consensus print could trigger a reappraisal of the odds on a 50 basis point hike at the Federal Reserve’s February meeting, and unleash sharp short-term moves in...

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