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Sentiment Remains Weak As Tariff Fears Outweigh Still-Supportive Fundamentals

Measures of risk appetite remain soft in currency markets amid mounting concern that Donald Trump’s tariffs may prove more enduring than had been hoped. A federal appeals court yesterday granted the administration a temporary reprieve from a ruling that could have unraveled much of its trade policy, broader confidence was dented by a Wall Street Journal report suggesting the White House is weighing a stopgap strategy to keep tariffs in place, and the President later posted a social media broadside against a legal system that has frustrated his ambitions in the last week. On a trade-weighted basis, the dollar remains...

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Dollar Slump Continues As Appeals Court Temporarily Reinstates Trump Tariffs

A federal appeals court has temporarily paused implementation of last night’s ruling that voided President Trump’s most wide-ranging tariffs. The US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit issued an order this afternoon allowing the administration to keep levies in place until it can hear the Justice Department’s challenge to the lower-court decision, saying “The judgments and the permanent injunctions entered by the Court of International Trade in these cases are temporarily stayed until further notice while this court considers the motions papers”. The plaintiffs in the cases – businesses and state officials – must now prepare briefs by June...

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Tariff Celebration Proves Short-Lived

Financial markets this morning celebrated a temporary reprieve from President Trump’s trade war after the bipartisan US Court of International Trade ruled that he overstepped his authority in using emergency powers to impose tariffs – but the relief rally is fading in the face of data that suggests the economy is losing momentum. North American equity indices are still marching toward solid gains – partially supported by last night’s positive earnings release from artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia Corp. – and implied volatility expectations are declining, but ten-year Treasury yields are falling, and the dollar is conceding territory as the session...

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Markets Soar After Trump Tariffs Are Ruled Illegal

The dollar and equity futures are spiking higher after the US Court of International Trade invalidated many of President Trump’s tariffs on key trading partners, finding in two cases that he had substantially exceeded his authority to impose duties under federal law. Citing the president’s overreach under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, a bipartisan panel of three judges this evening suspended the majority of the levies imposed in recent months, including near-universal 10-percent “baseline” tariffs, “reciprocal” measures against a number of countries, and fentanyl-related duties on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico. Other tariffs imposed under different powers,...

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Rally Fades As Uncertainties Remain

Traders are trimming risk after yesterday’s relief rally took market valuations a little too far. A rebound across Treasuries, equity indices, and the US dollar – initially driven by the Trump administration’s rapid retreat from tariff threats against the European Union and hints of a possible shift in Japan’s bond issuance strategy – is retracing against a still-uncertain policy backdrop. In currency markets, the greenback’s gains are fading, while the Canadian dollar, euro, British pound, and Japanese yen are giving back some of their losses. Long-dated government bond yields are inching higher in most developed economies after another bout of...

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