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USD

Trump’s Tariff Letters Leave Markets Largely Unmoved

The dollar is losing altitude once again after Donald Trump reignited trade tensions with a fresh round of tariff threats, unsettling global markets and complicating the outlook for monetary policy. Trump sent letters to 14 countries last night—including close allies and key trading partners Japan and South Korea—threatening them with the reimposition of tariffs from August 1, and more are expected today. The greenback is sitting on losses equivalent to roughly half of yesterday’s gain, Treasury yields are up across the curve, equity futures are pushing lower ahead of the open, and the Canadian dollar, Mexican peso, and euro are...

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Markets Trade Sideways As Trade Uncertainties Loom

The dollar is holding near a three-year low and measures of risk appetite are pointing to subdued trading action after the Trump administration seemingly extended its tariff deadline to August 1—reducing fears of a violent selloff around Wednesday’s original drop-dead date. Measures of trade policy uncertainty* have fallen sharply from their heights. At an event dubbed “Liberation Day” in early April, President Trump said imports from most countries would become subject to a 10 percent baseline tariff rate, and additional “reciprocal” levies—some ranging as high as 50 percent—would be applied against those running large trade imbalances with the US. However,...

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Jobs boost

• Upbeat tone. US equities, bond yields, & the USD edged up overnight. EUR eased back, as did NZD & AUD, though they remain at high levels.• US data. US jobs report a bit better than expected. But topline result masks some pockets of weakness under the hood. Private payrolls were soft.• Event radar. US on holiday tonight. Next week RBA & RBNZ meet. RBA expected to cut rates. US’ ‘pause’ on higher tariffs also due to end. Global Trends Ahead of tonight’s US Independence Day holiday US equities extended their upswing, bond yields rose, and the USD recouped a...

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US Jobs Report Crushes Expectations, Triggering Dollar Rally

The US job creation engine accelerated last month, weakening market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 147,000 jobs were added in June – representing a solid overshoot relative to the 110,000-position consensus forecast – and the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1 percent, from 4.2 percent in the prior month. Job growth in the previous month was revised higher to 144,000, bringing the three-month average up to 150,000. Caveats were present – 73,000 jobs were added...

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USD remains on the back foot

• Consolidation. Modest moves across most markets. USD index remains heavy with EUR pushing higher. AUD hovering near top of its range.• Macro pulse. US manufacturing ISM shows momentum still sluggish. US jobs report the main data focal point later this week.• AU data. Retail sales & building approvals released today. After a subdued start to the year will retail spending turn the corner? Global Trends Modest moves across markets at the start of the new month. US equities slipped back a touch from record highs (S&P500 -0.1%), US bond yields nudged up after trending lower the past few weeks,...

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