USD

• Jitters return. Post-US Fed optimism faded. Equities slipped back. USD index rose. NZD & AUD depreciated. AUD near ~$0.63, its March average.• AU jobs. February figures had more noise than signal. Employment fell but unemployment held steady. RBA shouldn’t jump at one month’s data.• Trading ranges. Yesterdays intra-day swing in AUD & NZD was larger than average. More vol. likely as the US’ 2 April ‘reciprocal tariff’ day nears. Global Trends The burst of market optimism, particularly in equities and cyclical currencies, after yesterday’s US Fed meeting when Chair Powell outlined that the tariff impact on inflation could be...

• Positive tone. Solid start to the week for risk assets. Equities rose, as did copper. USD softer. NZD (+1.3%) & AUD (+1%) outperform.• Macro trends. China data showed signs of improving momentum. Topline US retail sales weaker than expected. Growth trends weighing on the USD.• Central banks. Over coming days the Bank of Japan, US Fed, & Bank of England meet. Will the US Fed be more focused on inflation or growth? Global Trends Last Friday’s burst of market optimism has carried over into the new week. The equity market rebound extended with the US S&P500 (+0.6%) recording its...

• Positive vibes. Prospect of more China stimulus & German fiscal spending supported sentiment. Equities rose on Friday, as did AUD & NZD.• Tariff impacts. US tariff effects showing up in the data. US consumer sentiment tumbled, while inflation expectations jumped up.• Event Radar. A busy week ahead. China data & US retail sales (Today), BoJ (Weds), US Fed, AU jobs, NZ GDP, & BoE (all Thurs) on the schedule. Global Trends Volatility in markets continued on Friday, although this time risk appetite improved over the final trading session of the week. Equities rose with US indices leading the charge...