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24 Jul 2025

Earnings and Trade Optimism Spreads, Boosting Risk Assets

Risk-sensitive assets are looking buoyant this morning as perceived tail risks recede and investors turn more optimistic on the direction of global growth. The US dollar is up slightly, Treasury yields are inching higher, and major American stock indices are climbing ahead of the North American open after series of strong corporate earnings releases in recent days, coupled with a drumbeat of trade deal reports, helped allay fears of a more severe downturn in the US and world economies. The euro is holding firm after the European Central Bank left rates unchanged and avoided telegraphing its next moves, leaving market...

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23 Jul 2025

Risk Appetite Improves On US-Japan Trade Deal

A modest improvement in risk appetite is washing across markets after a trade deal between the US and Japan proved less economically-damaging than feared. The dollar and Treasury yields are holding steady, North American stock indices are printing gains at the open, and risk-sensitive units like the Australian and New Zealand dollars are climbing against their peers. In a social media post last night, President Donald Trump announced a deal that would set tariffs at 15 percent on imports of most Japanese products into the United States—a threshold lower than the 25 percent previously threatened. Under what Trump called the...

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22 Jul 2025

Intra-Day Volatility Falls As Newsflow Grinds To A Halt

Currency markets are turning in a mixed performance this morning amid an utter lack of new volatility catalysts. The dollar is holding steady in line with placid Treasury yields, most major currencies are trading within 20 basis points of yesterday’s close, and the yen is giving back some of yesterday’s gains after Prime Minister Ishiba’s governing coalition suffered losses in the weekend’s election. In the background, the dollar’s rebound appears to be fading. After investors spent much of early July correcting overly-bearish views on the American economy’s prospects by pushing monetary easing expectations back, short-term interest rates are reaching levels...

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21 Jul 2025

Positive vibes

• Upbeat tone. No news has been good news. US equities rose, while bond yields & USD slipped back. AUD a bit higher at start of new week.• RBA guidance. RBA meeting minutes out today. Governor Bullock speaks later in the week. Will the RBA support expectations looking for multiple cuts?• Data flow. Global PMIs due later this week. US corporate earnings also in focus with over 100 companies in S&P500 reporting over the next few days. Global Trends It has been a relatively positive start to the new week for risk assets. The US S&P500 (+0.1%) touched yet another...

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21 Jul 2025

Yen Climbs, Dollar Retreats As Data-Light Week Kicks Off

Amid a quiet start to the week, the Japanese yen is finding modest support even after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s governing coalition lost its majority in the Upper House, suggesting that currency markets had largely priced in the outcome ahead of yesterday’s vote. The Liberal Democratic Party—dominant in Japanese politics for all but five of the past seventy years—shed 16 of the 66 seats it defended, as both new and established opposition parties capitalised on public frustration over surging living costs. Wages have lagged behind inflation since the pandemic, and rice prices—arguably as central to Japan’s inflation psychology as gasoline...

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