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14 Aug 2024

US Inflation Matches Forecasts, Leaving Policy Expectations Stable

Consumer price growth slowed as expected in the United States last month, keeping the Federal Reserve on a heading toward easing policy in September. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.2 percent in July from the same period last year, and climbed 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was precisely aligned with consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. On a headline all-items basis, prices climbed 2.9 percent on a year-over-year...

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14 Aug 2024

Risk Appetite Rises Ahead of US Inflation Print

Investors are struggling to restrain themselves ahead of consumer inflation data that is expected to help clear the way for a jumbo-sized rate cut from the Federal Reserve in September. Treasury yields are sliding, equity indices are setting up for a positive open, and risk proxies like the Canadian dollar are advancing as market participants double down on a soft landing scenario in the US. The trade-weighted dollar is down roughly half a percentage point from Monday’s level after producer prices rose by less than forecast in July, pointing to a continued easing in underlying inflation pressures. The core producer...

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13 Aug 2024

Positive vibes

• Positive jolt. Soft US producer prices boosted risk sentiment. US equities rose, while bond yields & the USD declined. AUD’s rebound has extended.• RBNZ today. AUD/NZD on the radar. RBNZ meets today. Markets & economists split on whether a cut is delivered. AUD/NZD volatility likely.• Data flow. US CPI inflation out tonight. UK CPI also due. Tomorrow, Australian jobs, the China activity data batch, & US retail sales are released. A subdued US Producer Price Index, a sign upstream inflation pressures are moderating, generated a positive jolt for risk sentiment overnight. US headline PPI rose just 0.1% in July,...

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13 Aug 2024

Markets Steady as Inflation Data Looms

Currency markets are back to treading water this morning, with the dollar remaining effectively unchanged against its major rivals as traders brace for another round of inflation prints. Treasury yields are creeping higher, equity futures are setting up for a positive open, and global oil benchmarks are flatlining even as an Iranian attack on Israel comes into closer prospect. The British pound is trading with a slightly firmer bias after the jobless rate fell unexpectedly, seemingly reducing the impetus for monetary easing from the Bank of England. According to data released by the Office for National Statistics earlier this morning,...

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12 Aug 2024

Data flow set to heat up

• Quiet start. Subdued start to the new week. US equities consolidated, bond yields slipped back. Commodities firmer. This helped the AUD drift higher.• Data flow. UK jobs & US PPI due today. US inflation, RBNZ meeting, & UK CPI out tomorrow. Will the US PPI/CPI show moderating inflation pressures?• AU data. Q2 wages & business conditions in focus today. Wages drive services inflation. The monthly Australian jobs report out on Thursday. In contrast to the panic sell-off across markets last Monday it was a typical quiet start to the week yesterday. US equities consolidated (NASDAQ +0.2%, S&P500 flat), bond...

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