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USD

18 Dec 2024

Markets Brace for Fed’s “Hawkish Cut”

Financial markets are treading water this morning ahead of the year’s last Federal Reserve decision. US Treasury yields and the dollar are holding in narrow trading ranges, equity markets are pushing higher, and commodity prices are moving sideways. Market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting the Fed to deliver a “hawkish cut” this afternoon. After a series of data releases showing labour markets losing momentum and inflation holding steady, policymakers are widely believed likely to lower the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 4.25-4.50 percent – but the “dot plot” summary of economic projections is seen signalling...

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18 Dec 2024

Markets in the Fed’s hurt locker

• US Fed. Another rate cut was delivered but the US Fed signaled a shallower easing path ahead. US yields rose & the USD strengthened.• AUD & NZD. The stronger USD has seen the AUD & NZD tumble to levels last traded in Q4 2022. AUD also lost ground on most major crosses.• Overdone? A firmer USD is expected over H1 2025. But the extent of the post-US Fed reaction looks a little excessive, in our opinion. The US Fed was in the spotlight this morning, and adjustments made by policymakers have cascaded through markets. As expected, the US Fed...

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18 Dec 2024

Fed Out-Hawks Markets, Adds Upward Momentum to Dollar

As had been widely anticipated, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point this afternoon, while also telegraphing a dramatically slower pace of easing in 2025. The Federal Open Market Committee voted by an 11-to-1 margin to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25 to 4.50 percent, with the Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack dissenting in favour of a hold. In the statement setting out the decision, officials made only one major change that we can see: in place of a sentence that previously said “In considering additional adjustments to the target...

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17 Dec 2024

Commodity currencies under the pump

• Commodity FX. AUD, NZD, & CAD under pressure. AUD around levels last traded in November-2023. NZD touched a fresh ~2-year low.• Central banks. US Fed meets tomorrow, as does BoJ & BoE. Another Fed rate cut expected. Focus will be on its guidance & forecasts.• Already priced? Markets already factoring in fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025. It could be hard for the Fed to be more ‘hawkish’ than what’s priced. Central bank meetings will be the focus over the next few sessions with the US Fed (Thurs 6am AEDT), Bank of Japan (Thurs, no set time), and Bank...

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17 Dec 2024

US Retail Sales Firm, Canadian Inflation Decelerates

US retail spending climbed slightly more than expected last month, suggesting that resilient consumer demand could continue to power economic outperformance through the all-important holiday season. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 0.7 percent on a month-over-month basis in November, beating the 0.6-percent consensus forecasts, and up from a revised 0.5 percent in October. So-called “control group” retail sales sales – with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded – rose by a softer 0.4 percent, matching estimates. The dollar is holding firm, ten-year Treasury...

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