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US Payrolls Reflect Temporary Dislocations

The US employment engine slowed sharply in October, but the impact on markets looks relatively modest thus far, given that investors had been braced for a weaker payrolls report, with hurricane-related effects widely expected to combine with the ongoing Boeing strike to bring job-creation rates down. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, just 12,000 jobs were added in the month – representing an undershoot relative to the 100,000-consensus forecast – but the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, and the labour force participation rate inched only slightly lower, suggesting that labour market internals remained relatively...

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Stress Climbs in Currency Markets

The dollar is holding steady and measures of expected currency volatility are ratcheting higher as global investors go to ground ahead of today’s US non-farm payrolls report and next week’s presidential election. Ten-year Treasury yields are edging closer to the 4.30-percent threshold after softening briefly earlier in the week, North American equity markets are setting up for a defensive move after a series of mixed earnings reports from the likes of Microsoft and Meta, and oil prices are pushing higher on reports of a potential Iranian escalation in its ongoing tit-for-tat cycle with Israel. Forecasts for job creation in this...

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Dollar Steamrolls Toward Monthly Gain as Data Confirms Underlying Strength

The dollar is losing momentum amid month-end cross-currents, but looks set to end October with its biggest gain in two years as growth data continues to surprise to the upside and anticipation rises ahead of next week’s election. Numbers released yesterday showed the economy gaining steam. According to ADP’s measure, private sector employment jumped by 233,000 jobs in October, accelerating from 143,000 in September, and nearly doubling consensus forecasts. Gross domestic product climbed at a 2.8-percent annualised rate in the third quarter, slightly slowing from the second quarter’s 3-percent pace, but final private sales to domestic purchasers – an arguably-cleaner...

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Swings & roundabouts

• Vol. continues. Intra-session market swings. US/European equities ended the day lower. AUD & NZD nudged up. US data & election on the horizon.• Rates repricing. Positive EZ GDP & higher regional inflation saw ECB rate cut bets pared back. US GDP also solid. Bond yields rose, with EUR ticking up.• AU CPI. Headline inflation back in RBA’s band. This is because of government measures. Core CPI still above. RBA expected to hold next week. Intra-session volatility continued across markets yesterday as participants reacted to the incoming macro news flow. European and US equities ended the session lower (EuroStoxx50 -1.3%,...

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AUD still floundering

• Cross-currents. US equities outperformed. USD still elevated with global growth/US election concerns keeping NZD & AUD on the backfoot.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due today. Government measures will mechanically lower headline inflation. RBA more focused on trends in core CPI.• Data flow. US election is next week. Ahead of that US Q3 GDP is due tonight. PCE deflator & non-farm payrolls also released this week. Mixed signals overnight across markets and regions. Unlike the dip in European equities (EuroStoxx600 -0.6%) the US stockmarket rose. A rally by megacap tech names, which was led by Alphabet after its earnings beat...

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