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USD

12 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Risk Appetite Grows

Sometimes, sentiment in markets can defy easy explanation, requiring lots of nuance and many caveats to describe. At other times, the mood be summed up on the front of a Hallmark card. Today, it’s a 50th birthday card that says “it’s all downhill from here”. Investors remain convinced a softening economy and weaker price pressures will convince the Federal Reserve to slow rate increases – leading to a loosening in financial conditions that supports asset prices. Long-term Treasury yields are down, and the trade-weighted dollar is headed for its steepest weekly loss in at least two months. Commodity prices are...

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11 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Consolidate After Spectacular Rally

The most politically-incorrect word in economics is back. Mentions of “transitory” inflation have come into vogue again after yesterday’s data showed headline prices were unchanged in July after rising every month for the last two years, with the core measure also rising by less than expected. Market participants are increasingly convinced the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of hikes, lowering long-term rates and making monetary conditions more accommodative. Last week’s tightening in financial conditions has largely reversed, with yields back to pre-non-farm payrolls levels and the dollar dramatically weaker against most of its major rivals. The greenback slipped as...

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10 Aug 2022

Market Wire: US Inflation Decelerates More Than Expected

Headline US consumer prices rose by less than anticipated in July, putting downward pressure on short-term yields as market participants brace for a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the consumer price index climbed 8.5 percent in July from the same period last year, essentially flat on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by major data providers expected a 9.1 percent annual gain and 0.2 percent relative to June. A 4.6 percent month-over-month drop in energy prices — helped by an 7.7 percent tumble in the gasoline sub-index....

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10 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: A Calm Before the Storm Before the Calm Settles Over Markets

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Investors cut exposures ahead of this morning’s critically-important inflation print, leaving most major currency pairs unchanged in overnight trading. The dollar is modestly weaker, and the Treasury curve remains deeply inverted, with two-year yields exceeding their ten-year equivalents by almost 50 basis points – the most since 2000, and a sign that investors expect the economy to fall into a recession. Markets expect inflation pressures to subside somewhat, with the headline measure rising 8.7 percent year-over-year in July, down from 9.1 percent in June. The core measure is seen rising to 6.1 percent from 5.9 percent...

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09 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Directionless Markets Await Inflation Data

Equity futures are set for a weaker open, yields are higher, and exchange rates are milling about in a confused manner as liquidity ebbs ahead of tomorrow’s consumer price data. The dollar continues to unwind Friday’s gains. Oil prices are ratcheting higher after a report said Ukraine’s Ukrtransnafta last week halted flows across the Druzhba 1 pipeline that delivers Russian crude to Europe. A Bloomberg article quoted a Transneft spokesperson who said sanctions were preventing the payment of a transit fee to the pipeline’s operator. The West Texas Intermediate and Brent benchmarks are up roughly 1 percent each, but the...

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