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22 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Japanese Intervention and Fed Aftershocks Pummel Currency Markets

Global asset prices plunged and yield differentials tilted violently in the dollar’s favour yesterday after the Federal Reserve turned more hawkish than expected. The central bank hiked by 75 basis points for a third time, but the “dot plot” forecasts inflicted more damage on markets, showing that a solid majority of members expect to raise rates above 4.5 percent next year – even if this risks an economic downturn. Market-implied pricing shot up during the announcement and press conference, with the Federal Funds rate now expected to end the year around 4.4 percent, up from 4.2 percent yesterday morning. The...

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21 Sep 2022

Market Wire: Dollar Soars as Fed Raises Terminal Rate Expectations

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points and drastically raised its terminal rate estimates, triggering a spike in yields and the dollar. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-to-3.25 percent, with no dissents in favour of a 50 basis point move. In the official statement laying out the decision, policymakers removed language that previously highlighted a softening in spending and production, instead noting that “modest growth” should be expected. According to the accompanying Statement...

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21 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Fed and Geopolitical Threats Keep Currency Markets Under Pressure

Markets are relatively becalmed ahead of a Federal Reserve decision that could sustain—or reverse—a long rally in the dollar. Trading ranges for risk-sensitive currencies are narrowing, equity futures are pointing to a softer open, and US government bond yields are easing from yesterday’s highs – the 10-year closed at 3.571 percent and the two-year reached its loftiest levels since 2007 at 3.962 percent. Commodity prices spiked higher last night after Russian President Vladimir Putin mobilized his country’s military reserve and threatened a nuclear response in Ukraine, saying, “Those who are trying to blackmail us with nuclear weapons should know that...

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20 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Markets Trapped In Doldrums Ahead of Fed

Currency market trading ranges have gone flat ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision, but the dollar remains well-bid in a global environment dominated by tightening financial conditions. Equity futures are slumping after the US 10-year hit its highest levels in more than a decade earlier this morning, briefly climbing above 3.545 percent. The world’s most powerful central bank is expected to deliver a 75 basis point hike. Markets are assigning less-than-20-percent odds to a 100 basis point increase, especially after the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos yesterday published an article giving short shrift to a larger move. Mr. Timiraos helped...

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16 Sep 2022

Market Briefing: Worsening Risk Appetite Pummels Global Currency Markets

With real yields storming higher, the dollar is extending its rally this morning, sending the pound, euro and yen tumbling toward multi-decade lows. Global financial conditions are tightening and traders are bailing out of risk-sensitive assets ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers are expected to deliver 75 basis-point hike and guide terminal rate expectations firmly above the 4.25 percent mark. The British pound is plumbing levels last seen in 1985 after a weak retail sales report exacerbated fears of a deep and prolonged recession. The Office for National Statistics said receipts dropped 1.6 percent between July and...

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