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Market Briefing: Expectations for Jackson Hole Ramp Up Amid Late-August Trading Lull

With anticipation building in markets ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole on Friday, the dollar is trading near a five-week high, short term Treasury yields are up, and equity futures are tumbling. Investors expect the Federal Reserve chair to tilt against the recent loosening in financial conditions, emphasizing the central bank’s willingness to hit the economic brakes as it works to bring inflation under control. But “there is no terror in the bang,” as Alfred Hitchcock put it, “only in the anticipation of it”. Mr. Powell will almost certainly acknowledge signs of slowing economic momentum and is unlikely...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Jumps Into the Hole

Traders are cutting risk and buying the dollar going into the holiest of holies on the central bank calendar – the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Treasury yields are rising, equity futures are dropping, and the trade-weighted greenback is up roughly 0.3 percent as markets position ahead of Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech next Friday morning. Mr. Powell is widely expected to argue against the arguably-premature loosening in financial conditions that has occurred since the July meeting, attempting to better align market forecasts with the central bank’s own terminal rate projections. This is unlikely to drive a...

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Market Briefing: Markets Tread Water After Fed Minutes

Major asset classes are moving sideways and implied volatility in the currency markets is falling after a record of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting largely confirmed prevailing investor views. Oil and commodity prices are climbing after Chinese authorities signalled an acceleration in stimulus efforts. Bloomberg quoted state media sources as saying local governments had been authorized to sell an additional $226 billion in bonds, helping to support spending and avoid a “fiscal cliff”. President Xi Jinping said authorities would try to balance growth with disease-control policies, continuing the process of opening the economy up. The expressions of support come on...

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Market Wire: Dovish Fed Minutes Push Dollar and Yields Lower

The Federal Reserve rate-setting committee began considering an eventual deceleration in the pace of monetary tightening at its July meeting, aligning with comments made by Chair Jerome Powell during the post-decision press conference. A record of the discussion showed no concerns raised about the loosening in financial conditions that occurred ahead of the meeting, and appears to ratify the market reaction that unfolded when Mr. Powell said “it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases”. Participants remained determined to bring inflation down to target, noting that price growth “remained unacceptably high”, with several expressing reservations about the...

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Market Wire: Dollar Stable on Strong Core Retail Sales Numbers

US retail spending flatlined last month, but underlying consumer demand remained strong, keeping monetary tightening expectations aloft. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants were roughly unchanged on a month-over-month in July, up 10.3 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.1 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell -1.8 percent month-over-month as global energy prices tumbled. Motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a -1.6 percent loss. Receipts at food services operations rose 0.1 percent, and grocery store sales were up 0.2 percent, but rising food...

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