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USD

Markets Retreat as Threat Environment Worsens

Markets are dressed in red for all the wrong reasons this morning. Most major currencies are down against the dollar on a month- and year-to-date basis as increasingly-hawkish policy expectations intersect with safe-haven demand ahead of a likely shutdown of the US federal government. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding near a six-month high at 5.54 percent, North American equity futures are pointing to renewed losses at the open, and many measures of expected volatility remain elevated. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure continued its moderation in November, slightly depressing rate expectations for next year. Data released by the Bureau of...

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Central bank divergence

• Calm down. A sense of calm returned overnight. US equities consolidated & the US yield curve steepened. USD held its ground. AUD ticked up a little.• Central banks. BoE kept rates steady but kept door open to more easing. BoJ more ‘dovish’ than expected. GBP & especially JPY underperformed.• Event radar. Japan CPI, US PCE deflator, & appearances by Fed members in focus today. Is too much ‘good news’ priced in the USD? A sense of calm has returned to markets following yesterday’s ‘hawkish’ US Fed induced volatility. US equities consolidated. Though given the size of yesterday’s falls (the...

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“Bad Santa” Shock Hits Markets

This year’s Santa rally came with a Fed clause. Markets are recovering, but remain in turmoil after officials at the world’s most powerful central bank turned far more hawkish on the year ahead than almost anyone had expected even as they lowered benchmark interest rates for a third consecutive time. The dollar is trading near a post-2022 peak, ten-year Treasury yields are holding at seven month highs above 4.5 percent, most major equity indices are down more than 3 percent, and the VIX volatility index—Wall Street’s “fear gauge”—is up dramatically after hitting its loftiest levels since the August 7 volatility...

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Markets Brace for Fed’s “Hawkish Cut”

Financial markets are treading water this morning ahead of the year’s last Federal Reserve decision. US Treasury yields and the dollar are holding in narrow trading ranges, equity markets are pushing higher, and commodity prices are moving sideways. Market participants are nearly unanimous in expecting the Fed to deliver a “hawkish cut” this afternoon. After a series of data releases showing labour markets losing momentum and inflation holding steady, policymakers are widely believed likely to lower the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 4.25-4.50 percent – but the “dot plot” summary of economic projections is seen signalling...

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Markets in the Fed’s hurt locker

• US Fed. Another rate cut was delivered but the US Fed signaled a shallower easing path ahead. US yields rose & the USD strengthened.• AUD & NZD. The stronger USD has seen the AUD & NZD tumble to levels last traded in Q4 2022. AUD also lost ground on most major crosses.• Overdone? A firmer USD is expected over H1 2025. But the extent of the post-US Fed reaction looks a little excessive, in our opinion. The US Fed was in the spotlight this morning, and adjustments made by policymakers have cascaded through markets. As expected, the US Fed...

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