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Market Wire: Core Inflation Accelerates More Than Anticipated, Raising Rate Expectations

Core US consumer prices climbed by more than expected in September, hitting a four-decade high as inflation pressures broadened across most services sectors. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 8.2 percent in September from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by major data providers ahead of the release expected an 8.1 percent annual gain and a 0.2 percent increase relative to August. A -2.1 percent month-over-month drop in energy prices — helped by an -4.9 percent tumble in the gasoline...

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Market Briefing: Currencies Hold Steady as Investors Brace for Inflation Data

With the week’s biggest data release set to drop in less than half an hour, financial markets are still hitting the snooze button. Treasuries are flat, futures are stable, and the dollar is slightly weaker as traders limit risk. Investors expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report an acceleration in core inflation, adding to an already-compelling case for more tightening when the Federal Reserve meets in the first week of November. Minutes taken during the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, released yesterday, delivered no new insight for market participants. Policymakers remained committed to their “higher for longer” mantra, noting that...

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Market Briefing: Sentiment Turns Fragile As Bank of England Sucks and Blows

Nerves are frayed after the Bank of England’s efforts to simultaneously ease and tighten policy continue to sow confusion in bond and currency markets. After stepping up its intervention efforts on Monday, the central bank offered to buy £5 billion in inflation-linked bonds yesterday morning, but instability returned when Governor Andrew Bailey warned pension funds support would end on Friday, saying “You’ve got three days left. You’ve got to get this done”. A later Financial Times article, referencing interviews conducted prior to Bailey’s comments, added to the mixed messaging by suggesting that officials were considering extending relief beyond Friday –...

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Market Briefing: Risk Appetite Remains Depressed, Containing Trading Ranges in Currency Markets

Markets look intent on extending yesterday’s slump, with major equity indices poised for a weaker open and the dollar remaining stable on robust demand for safe-haven assets. Currency traders, bracing for weak corporate earnings, hawkish Fed minutes, and still-firm inflation data, are avoiding taking strongly-directional positions, staying close to home where possible. The pound is weaker after the Bank of England broadened its emergency buying to include index-linked gilts. In a statement setting out the details, the Bank said “The beginning of this week has seen a further significant repricing of UK government debt, particularly index-linked gilts. Dysfunction in this...

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Market Wire: Hawkish Payrolls Report Lifts Dollar

Ahead of the release, investors were positioned for a 250,000-job gain, with the unemployment rate seen holding at 3.7 percent. The dollar climbed on the print as interest rates rose slightly across the front end of the curve. Stock futures slipped. On the colder side of the border, Canada generated 21,100 jobs in September, modestly topping expectations for a 20,000-position increase. According to data released by Statistics Canada, the unemployment rate fell to 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent in August. Average hourly wages grew 5.2 percent on a year-over-year basis, up from the 5.4 percent pace recorded in the prior...

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