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USD

12 Feb 2025

Push pull market forces

• Headline swings. US CPI hotter than expected. Interest rate markets adjust. Jump up in the USD didn’t last as positive geopolitical news hit the wires.• FX moves. EUR rebounded on reports talks to end the Ukraine war may take place. USD/JPY rose. AUD & NZD recovered lost intra-day ground.• Volatility. We think more short-term bursts of headline driven FX volatility are likely as the macro & geopolitical issues play out. Global Trends There was another burst of volatility across markets overnight, particularly in FX, as sentiment and the USD were pushed and pulled by US economic developments and geopolitical...

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12 Feb 2025

Inflation Heats Up, Clobbering Fed Bets

Consumer price growth accelerated in the United States last month, bolstering the case for a cautious approach to easing from the Federal Reserve—and raising the odds on a rate hike at some point this year. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline all-items consumer price index climbed 3.0 percent year-over-year in January, accelerating slightly from the 2.9 percent pace set in December, and rose 0.5 percent from the previous month. The core measure—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 3.3 percent in January from the same period last year, and rose 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, marking...

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11 Feb 2025

Markets Steady As Event Risks Loom

Currency traders are treading cautiously after Donald Trump raised taxes on steel and aluminum imports into the United States, and price action is slowing ahead of this morning’s testimony from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell and tomorrow’s inflation update. North American equity futures are setting up for a negative open, the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is up roughly 2 basis points, and the dollar is consolidating gains achieved in the run-up to last night’s tariff announcement. President Trump signed two executive orders last night imposing 25-percent tariffs on all steel and aluminum products, saying “It’s a big deal. This is...

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10 Feb 2025

Signal versus noise

• Holding on. Yesterdays tariff headlines didn’t trigger a lasting market impact. Equities pushed higher, bond yields consolidated, & AUD rebounded.• Macro impulses. In addition to tariff news markets will be focused on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony tonight. US Fed looks to be in no rush to cut again.• Tariff news. AUD outperformed overnight. There are indirect headwinds but AU’s export basket looks rather tariff-insulated. US runs a trade surplus with AU. Global Trends Markets look to have taken the latest US trade tariff news in their stride. As outlined yesterday, the US is reportedly set to impose 25% tariffs...

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10 Feb 2025

Markets Look Through Renewed Tariff Threats

The dollar is up modestly against its major rivals after Donald Trump verbally threatened to increase tariffs for the third weekend in a row. In a press briefing conducted on Air Force One ahead of yesterday’s Super Bowl, the president told reporters that he would unveil new reciprocal tariffs—levies designed to match foreign protectionist measures—in the coming days, and will impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum products from all US trading partners today. Reciprocal tariffs—which are designed to match protectionist measures in other countries—are generally well supported on both sides of the aisle, and are not terribly impactful...

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