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USD

09 Jun 2025

Slow & steady

• Quiet start. US equities rose a bit overnight, while US bond yields & the USD eased. AUD & NZD near top of their respective multi-month ranges.• Macro trends. US jobs report released last Friday. Topline figures mask weakness under the hood. Indicators point to softer trends forming.• Event Radar. US/China trade talks taking place. In the US, inflation is a focus (Weds). Will the US CPI show tariff impacts on ‘goods’ prices? Global Trends It has been a quiet start to the new week across markets. US equities ended the overnight session a bit higher (S&P500 +0.1%), while US...

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09 Jun 2025

Data Cadence Slows, But Bond Auctions Represent Clear and Present Danger

The US dollar is trading with a softer tone this morning, slipping against all of its major counterparts as it relinquishes gains made on the heels of Friday’s robust jobs report. Ten-year Treasury yields are retreating from the 4.5-percent mark before a heavy slate of bond auctions, equity futures are holding steady ahead of the North American open, and implied volatility in currency markets is subsiding toward historical averages as the pace of top-tier data releases slows and investor risk appetite shows tentative signs of improvement. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report reduced pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates....

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06 Jun 2025

US Job Creation Holds Firm, Driving Dollar Higher

The US job creation engine maintained its modest momentum last month, keeping the Federal Reserve sidelined for now. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 139,000 jobs were added in May – representing an overshoot relative to the 125,000-consensus forecast – and the unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent, as expected. Average hourly earnings climbed 3.9 percent, pointing to relative resilience in aggregate household incomes. However, the previous two months were revised lower by a cumulative 95,000 positions, and the manufacturing sector shed 8,000 jobs. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are climbing as rate cut expectations are pushed further into the...

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05 Jun 2025

US jobs in focus

• US wobbles. US equities declined & USD softened. Public spat between Musk & Trump intensified. AUD touched a fresh year-to-date high.• Macro trends. ECB delivered a ‘hawkish’ cut. Tweaks to inflation forecasts & rhetoric suggest ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle.• US jobs. Monthly US jobs figures in focus tonight. Various indicators point to a cooling US labour market. Will the data spring a surprise? Global Trends A couple of push-pull forces generated a few wobbles overnight. On net, in contrast to the modest uptick in European equities the major US markets declined (S&P500 -0.5%) with...

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05 Jun 2025

Traders Hunker Down Ahead of Non-Farm Payrolls

Trading ranges are shrinking and short-term volatility gauges are pointing to turbulence ahead as currency market participants move to the sidelines in the run-up to tomorrow’s all-important non-farm payrolls report. Traders expect a modest slowdown in hiring and a steady unemployment rate, but uncertainty is high, and the implications for the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory are significant. The dollar is almost unchanged, ten-year Treasury yields are inching higher after tumbling in yesterday’s session, and equity futures are pointing toward almost-imperceptible gains at the North American open. The European Central Bank cut its benchmark rates by a quarter point – as...

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