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USD

USD losing altitude

• US trends. Outlook for US rate cuts supported sentiment & exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Macro forces. Patchy US growth & signs the labour market is loosening. Reports also indicate Pres. Trump may name the next Fed Chair early.• USD downtrend. Various factors continue to move against the USD. There will be bumps along the way but we see the USD weakening over time. Global Trends The de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East has seen investors quickly refocus their attention on US macro trends. The run of US...

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“Shadow Fed Chair” Fears Drive Dollar Lower

The dollar is trading near a three-year low and Treasury yields are down across the curve after a report suggested that Donald Trump could appoint the next Federal Reserve chair early in an attempt to push interest rates in a more favourable direction. According to the Wall Street Journal, frustration with the central bank’s easing trajectory has led the president to consider naming a successor to Jerome Powell in the coming months, with Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, Kevin Hassett, Scott Bessent, and David Malpass all emerging as potential contenders for a role that would be expected to steer the central...

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USD pressure points

• Mixed fortunes. US equities & bonds consolidated, while USD remains on backfoot. EUR & GBP near cyclical highs. AUD & NZD a little firmer.• USD trends. Fundamental forces continue to undermine the USD. It won’t be a straight line but we think these trends may continue for a while yet.• AU CPI. Monthly inflation slowed more than forecast. RBA likely to cut interest rates again in early-July. However, this is largely priced in. Global Trends Some mixed fortunes across financial markets overnight, though on net the moves have been modest. In contrast to the solid rise across Asian equities...

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Art of the truce

• Peacemaker. De-escalation of Israel/Iran conflict boosted sentiment. Equities rose, oil declined. This dragged down the USD. AUD & NZD higher.• Fed comments. Fed Chair Powell also spoke. Noted there is no rush to act, but kept door open to more policy easing if inflation remains contained.• AU CPI. CPI indicator due today. More info on services prices this month. Will the CPI show sticky core inflation? RBA next meets on 8 July. Global Trends Yesterday’s Israel/Iran ceasefire announcement improved the market mood with risk sentiment quite positive over the past 24hrs. After US President Trump criticized both sides for...

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Fragile Middle Eastern Truce Boosts Risk Assets

Oil prices are down dramatically, shares are gaining, and the dollar is retreating on signs that the latest round of hostilities in the Middle East is drawing to a close. A truce between Israel and Iran, announced by US President Donald Trump late last night, was temporarily interrupted by accusations of missile launches from both sides, but now appears to be holding. Crude benchmarks plunged earlier in yesterday’s session when Tehran launched a well-telegraphed missile attack on US assets in Qatar, avoiding an escalation that might have led to a disruption in global energy supplies. Treasury yields tumbled yesterday when...

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