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SGD

30 Jun 2025

US dollar blues

• Pressure points. US equities hit another record high, while the USD remains under pressure. AUD has risen to the top of its multi-month range.• USD trends. USD index ~10.5% below where it started the year. Worst performance over the first half of a year since the early-70s.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI & ECB conference in focus tonight. Various US jobs indicators due over next few days. US ISM also released tonight. Global Trends Risk sentiment ended the month, and volatile quarter, on positive footing with the US S&P500 (+0.5%) hitting a fresh record high and cyclical currencies like the...

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29 Jun 2025

US jobs in focus

• Holding on. Pockets of volatility on Friday but on net US equities & bond yields rose. EUR continues to climb. AUD drifted a little lower.• US macro. Consumer spending fell. Some signs of tariff impacts on US inflation. Has the uncertainty flowed through to the US jobs market?• Event Radar. China PMIs today. Annual ECB conference & EZ inflation due this week. US jobs report scheduled (Thurs night AEST) ahead of US holiday. Global Trends Markets were whipsawed a little during Friday’s trade by a couple of tariff related developments and US economic releases. Risk sentiment temporarily soured a...

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26 Jun 2025

USD losing altitude

• US trends. Outlook for US rate cuts supported sentiment & exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD at the top of its multi-month range.• Macro forces. Patchy US growth & signs the labour market is loosening. Reports also indicate Pres. Trump may name the next Fed Chair early.• USD downtrend. Various factors continue to move against the USD. There will be bumps along the way but we see the USD weakening over time. Global Trends The de-escalation of the situation in the Middle East has seen investors quickly refocus their attention on US macro trends. The run of US...

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24 Jun 2025

Art of the truce

• Peacemaker. De-escalation of Israel/Iran conflict boosted sentiment. Equities rose, oil declined. This dragged down the USD. AUD & NZD higher.• Fed comments. Fed Chair Powell also spoke. Noted there is no rush to act, but kept door open to more policy easing if inflation remains contained.• AU CPI. CPI indicator due today. More info on services prices this month. Will the CPI show sticky core inflation? RBA next meets on 8 July. Global Trends Yesterday’s Israel/Iran ceasefire announcement improved the market mood with risk sentiment quite positive over the past 24hrs. After US President Trump criticized both sides for...

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08 May 2025

Markets Rally On Hopes For Global Trade Ceasefire

Stock futures are up and the dollar is trading on a stronger footing after President Donald Trump said he would announce a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement with the United Kingdom later this morning, raising hopes that a broader ratcheting down in tensions could avert lasting damage to the American and global economies. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are trading lower, while the euro and other majors are holding firm. Currency market reaction during the White House press conference itself could be fairly subdued. Although reports have suggested that the US is prepared to rescind taxes on autos along...

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