SGD

• Holding on. No change in rates by US Fed. US equities & bond yields consolidate. USD index ticks up, but AUD outperformance continues.• RBA hikes. Stronger CPI boosted RBA rate rise bets. Hike next week ~70% priced, 2 moves baked in by year-end. AUD up at Feb ’23 levels. Global Trends Markets were calmer overnight compared to the bursts of volatility that have washed through recently. US equities consolidated with the S&P500 up near record highs while US bond yields were range bound with the 10yr rate close to its 1-year average (now ~4.24%). In FX, the USD index...

• Weaker USD. US equities rose again while the USD remains under pressure. EUR at a multi-year high. AUD touched highest point since Q1 2023.• Macro trends. Q4 Australian CPI out today. Will it help or hinder RBA rate hike expectations? US Fed meets tomorrow. No changes anticipated. Global Trends A few of the recent major market themes continued overnight with European/US equities rising and the USD remaining under downward pressure. More specifically, the US S&P500 (+0.5%) reached a record high while the tech-focused NASDAQ jumped up 0.9% to be within a whisker of its historic peak. US bond yields...

• US CPI. Uptick in US inflation has seen Fed rate cut expectations fall. USD firmer on the back of higher yields. AUD & NZD lose some ground.• US data flow. US producer prices out tonight. US import prices & retail sales due tomorrow. More signs of tariff impacts could give USD more support.• AU jobs. Australian jobs report also released tomorrow. The data has been volatile the past few months. Will unemployment rise in June? Global Trends US economic data was in focus overnight with the latest CPI inflation report showing more of an impact on ‘goods’ prices from...

• Pressure points. US equities hit another record high, while the USD remains under pressure. AUD has risen to the top of its multi-month range.• USD trends. USD index ~10.5% below where it started the year. Worst performance over the first half of a year since the early-70s.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI & ECB conference in focus tonight. Various US jobs indicators due over next few days. US ISM also released tonight. Global Trends Risk sentiment ended the month, and volatile quarter, on positive footing with the US S&P500 (+0.5%) hitting a fresh record high and cyclical currencies like the...