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02 Feb 2025

Shots fired in the trade war

• Tariff news. US announced tariffs against Canada, Mexico, & China. This had been in the pipeline for a while. Canada also unveiled retaliatory action.• USD stronger. The news has boosted the USD this morning. AUD & NZD on the backfoot. Uncertainty & macro headwinds are usually USD supportive.• Event Radar. Tariff news will be in the drivers seat. Data-wise, jobs reports are out in NZ, Canada & the US this week. Several US Fed members also speak. Global Trends After much talk the first actual shots were fired in the US led Trump 2.0 trade war over the weekend....

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30 Jan 2025

Tariff volatility

• Tariff threat. President Trump rattled FX markets this morning after reiterating tariffs could be imposed on Canada & Mexico on Saturday. USD rose.• Macro pulse. Overnight the data showed that US growth outpaced the Eurozone. ECB cut rates again. More moves likely to revive activity.• AUD vol. The Trump comments exerted downward pressure on the AUD. More headline driven volatility likely over the period ahead. Global Trends The economic data flow picked up overnight with the relative outperformance of the US once again on show with tariff-related comments by US President Trump rattling a few FX market nerves this...

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29 Jan 2025

Inflation & the AUD

• Central banks. Another rate cut by the BoC & Riksbank, although forward guidance was removed. US Fed kept rates steady & signaled patience.• Modest moves. Mixed performance across equities. Bond yields ticked up. USD tread water. ECB expected to cut rates tonight. US GDP also released.• AU CPI. Core inflation slowed bolstering expectations for a February RBA rate cut. A rates recalibration is looming, but is the low AUD already factoring this in? Global Trends There were few data releases overnight and no new news regarding President Trump’s policy agenda, particularly around tariffs. Rather, central banks were in the...

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27 Jan 2025

Tech tumbles

• Equity pressure. AI news out of China weighed on US tech stocks. The 7 US megacaps have driven the overall market strength the past few years.• Spill-overs. Risk off tone in equities washed through other markets. Bond yields fell as did oil. JPY outperformed while AUD & NZD slipped back a bit.• Event radar. Locally, Q4 CPI in focus this week (Weds). Offshore, the US Fed, Bank of Canada, & ECB meet. Tech stocks also report earnings. Global Trends Some nervousness returned to markets after what had been a relatively more positive period last week. US equities kicked off...

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23 Jan 2025

Trump talk continues

• Trump talk. More comments from US President Trump overnight, but market reaction was relatively muted. Equities rose, while oil & the USD eased.• AUD & NZD. The USD pull-back is supporting AUD & NZD. Both are near the top of their respective 1-month ranges. AU CPI due next week.• BoJ hike? BoJ meets today. Another hike expected. We think the BoJ is ‘behind the curve’. Higher rates can help the JPY lift over the medium-term. Global Trends As has been the case the past few days comments by US President Trump in a virtual appearance at the World Economic...

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