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MXN

08 Jan 2025

Tariff and Inflation Worries Kick Yields and the Dollar Higher

Bond yields and the greenback are sitting on substantial gains this morning on the back of a report suggesting that the US could apply universal tariffs on its major trading partners, and after data released yesterday seemed to bolster the case for a slowing in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle, triggering a pullback in market bets on rate cuts. The benchmark ten-year Treasury yield is sitting near 4.7 percent—roughly ten basis points above the Monday open—and global rates curves are climbing in sympathy with the US move, with British gilts selling off at the most extreme pace. After having fully...

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07 Jan 2025

Tariff Threat Aftershocks Leave Currency Markets Jittery

Currency markets are suffering a case of whiplash after Donald Trump yesterday denied a report saying that his aides were exploring plans to implement a narrower set of tariffs than had been promised on the campaign trail. The article in the Washington Post, which suggested that the incoming administration would impose selective rather than universal tariffs, triggered a 1-percent drop in the dollar, but was rebutted a little more than three hours later by the president-elect in a Truth Social post in which he called it “fake news”. The greenback ended the day down roughly 0.7 percent as traders adopted...

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06 Jan 2025

Potential Dilution in Trump Tariff Plans Pummels Dollar

As the curtain rises on 2025, the dollar is tumbling on a report suggesting that incoming US president Donald Trump will ultimately implement tariffs on a much narrower set of products than he had threatened on the campaign trail. According to the Washington Post, advisors to the president-elect are preparing plans to impose import taxes on goods deemed critical to national or economic security—products related to defence industries, strategically-important energy inputs and commodities, and critical medical supplies—instead of the “universal” 10-to-20-percent tariffs previously proposed. This would inflict less pain on the global economy, and reduce the risk of an inflationary...

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10 Dec 2024

Mexico’s relationship with the US may be on a rocky footing, but this isn’t the country’s first rodeo

Peso fundamentals are relatively supportive: the economy is growing at a solid clip, inflation remains well-contained, fiscal and current account deficits look manageable, and the central bank’s policy rate remains well above its US equivalent. Political uncertainty is falling after the summer election and this autumn’s judicial reforms.  The outlook nonetheless hinges on whether US President Trump follows through on campaign pledges to restrict immigration and apply taxes on products imported from Mexico. Heavy tariffs could inflict serious damage on the country’s export sector, and if migrants are sent home, remittances could plummet, depriving the economy of one of its most...

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02 Dec 2024

Dollar Rallies Back, Euro Tumbles

The ‘US exceptionalism’ theme is back to driving markets this morning, helping the dollar snap a three-day losing streak against most of its rivals. The euro is coming under pressure as the French government struggles to pass a budget, the Swiss franc is advancing amid stronger safe-haven flows, and major high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – are all off around half a percentage point. The dollar’s outperformance this year can be seen clearly in the chart below, which shows trade-weighted values through November 27. After softening in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, the currency...

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