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MXN

02 Dec 2024

Dollar Rallies Back, Euro Tumbles

The ‘US exceptionalism’ theme is back to driving markets this morning, helping the dollar snap a three-day losing streak against most of its rivals. The euro is coming under pressure as the French government struggles to pass a budget, the Swiss franc is advancing amid stronger safe-haven flows, and major high-beta currencies – like the Canadian dollar – are all off around half a percentage point. The dollar’s outperformance this year can be seen clearly in the chart below, which shows trade-weighted values through November 27. After softening in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut, the currency...

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27 Nov 2024

Markets Consolidate Ahead of Inflation Print

Currency markets are back in consolidation mode as investors consider the implications of Donald Trump’s latest cabinet picks and position ahead of this morning’s inflation update. The dollar is inching lower amid month-end flows, Treasury yields are down, equity futures are slipping, and oil prices are weakening after Israel and Hezbollah reached a cease-fire agreement late yesterday, reducing the likelihood of a widening conflict that could pull in other regional powers. Unease over the extent to which protectionist policies might be deployed by the US remains elevated after the president-elect tapped Robert Lighthizer’s former chief of staff to lead trade...

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26 Nov 2024

‘Tariff Man’s’ Return Rocks Currency Markets

Donald Trump’s threat to raise consumption taxes on a range of goods imported from Canada, Mexico, and China is still sending shockwaves across currency markets. The dollar is up roughly a percentage point against its North American and European counterparts after the president last night said he would impose tariffs of 25 percent on all imports from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10 percent on Chinese goods, accusing the countries of allowing illegal migrants and drug traffickers into the US. In a break with long-standing Republican orthodoxy – most clearly under Ronald Reagan – this would raise trade...

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18 Nov 2024

Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Ebbs

The dollar is trading below last week’s one-year high this morning, with softness in equity markets helping limit marginal flows into the US financial system. The S&P 500 has given back more than half of its post-election gains on a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy – and some scepticism on the earnings front – ten-year Treasury yields are holding at around 4.46 percent, and risk appetite is ebbing across a range of asset classes. Data last week showed the US economy maintaining strong underlying momentum. Retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, suggesting that consumer demand is...

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15 Nov 2024

Easing Expectations Fall, Markets Retreat

The dollar is still making the weather in global financial markets this morning, heading for a circa 1.5-percent weekly gain, even as it weakens slightly on a modest softening in overall risk sentiment. Treasury yields are holding at elevated levels as investors ratchet rate cutting expectations lower, and equity futures are pointing toward another weak session as uncertainty grows around the economy’s potential performance under a second Trump administration. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s easing trajectory are pulling back after two influential officials said the central bank could take its time in cutting rates. In a speech given to business...

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