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GBP

18 Nov 2024

Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Ebbs

The dollar is trading below last week’s one-year high this morning, with softness in equity markets helping limit marginal flows into the US financial system. The S&P 500 has given back more than half of its post-election gains on a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy – and some scepticism on the earnings front – ten-year Treasury yields are holding at around 4.46 percent, and risk appetite is ebbing across a range of asset classes. Data last week showed the US economy maintaining strong underlying momentum. Retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, suggesting that consumer demand is...

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17 Nov 2024

Signs of exhaustion?

• Choppy times. US equities weaker at the end of last week. Paring back of rate cut expectations a factor. USD consolidates with USD/JPY declining.• AUD trends. AUD hovering just above recent lows. Stronger for longer USD a medium-term AUD headwind. But AUD can edge up on the crosses.• Event radar. Global PMIs & CPI data from the UK, Japan, & Canada is due. ECB, US Fed, & RBA members are also due to speak this week. It was a choppy end to the week in markets on Friday with the US election outcome continuing to wash through and with...

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15 Nov 2024

Easing Expectations Fall, Markets Retreat

The dollar is still making the weather in global financial markets this morning, heading for a circa 1.5-percent weekly gain, even as it weakens slightly on a modest softening in overall risk sentiment. Treasury yields are holding at elevated levels as investors ratchet rate cutting expectations lower, and equity futures are pointing toward another weak session as uncertainty grows around the economy’s potential performance under a second Trump administration. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s easing trajectory are pulling back after two influential officials said the central bank could take its time in cutting rates. In a speech given to business...

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14 Nov 2024

USD powering ahead

• Policy trends. The pricing in of the Trump agenda & comments by Fed Chair Powell have seen US rate cut expectations pared back.• USD upswing. The adjustment in yield spreads in the US’ favour is supporting the USD. We think this trend may have further to go.• Data pulse. The monthly China activity data is due today. Tonight, focus will be on US retail sales given consumption is the economic engine room. The post US-election market gyrations were on show again overnight as participants continue to contemplate what a Trump policy mix of trade-tariffs, greater fiscal spending, and steps...

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12 Nov 2024

Trump trade kicking into gear

• Trump trade. Post US election repricing continues. US yields rose. Widening yield spreads are pushing up the USD. AUD on the backfoot.• US data. Trump policy agenda is USD supportive. Data wise, US CPI due tonight. Sticky core inflation could add to the USD’s upswing.• Local news. Consumer sentiment improved. Business conditions holding up. Q3 wages due today. Monthly jobs report out tomorrow. The post US-election repricing in markets extended overnight with participants continuing to factor in what the Trump policy mix of trade-tariffs, greater fiscal spending, and steps to curb US immigration will mean for the outlook. Reports...

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