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Geopolitical Risks Roil Markets, Loonie Rises on Hot Inflation

Global financial markets are in safety-seeking mode after Ukraine reportedly launched its first long-range missile strike against Russian territory using American-made systems, and Vladimir Putin signed an updated strategic doctrine that would allow Russian forces to deploy atomic weapons in response to a conventional assault from countries backed by other nuclear powers. Ten-year Treasury yields are retreating, North American equity futures are setting up for a drop at the open, and currency markets are displaying classic flight-to-safety characteristics, with the Swiss franc and Japanese yen outperforming their brethren. Like most geopolitical shocks, this should prove short-lived. Investors expect Putin’s sabre-rattling...

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Noise vs Signal

• Partial bounce. Various ‘Trump trades’ backpedaled overnight with US yields & the USD a little lower & equities higher. AUD & NZD benefited.• RBA trends. Latest research from the RBA shows monetary policy is just as potent here as elsewhere. But the RBA didn’t raise rates as high.• AUD impulses. Higher for longer RBA should be AUD supportive against EUR, NZD, CAD, & CNH. This can help counteract positive USD vibes. The post US-election ‘Trump trades’ paused for breath with many of the underlying assets backpedaling a little at the start of the new week. There was no major...

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Dollar Stalls as Risk Appetite Ebbs

The dollar is trading below last week’s one-year high this morning, with softness in equity markets helping limit marginal flows into the US financial system. The S&P 500 has given back more than half of its post-election gains on a more hawkish outlook for monetary policy – and some scepticism on the earnings front – ten-year Treasury yields are holding at around 4.46 percent, and risk appetite is ebbing across a range of asset classes. Data last week showed the US economy maintaining strong underlying momentum. Retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, suggesting that consumer demand is...

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Signs of exhaustion?

• Choppy times. US equities weaker at the end of last week. Paring back of rate cut expectations a factor. USD consolidates with USD/JPY declining.• AUD trends. AUD hovering just above recent lows. Stronger for longer USD a medium-term AUD headwind. But AUD can edge up on the crosses.• Event radar. Global PMIs & CPI data from the UK, Japan, & Canada is due. ECB, US Fed, & RBA members are also due to speak this week. It was a choppy end to the week in markets on Friday with the US election outcome continuing to wash through and with...

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Easing Expectations Fall, Markets Retreat

The dollar is still making the weather in global financial markets this morning, heading for a circa 1.5-percent weekly gain, even as it weakens slightly on a modest softening in overall risk sentiment. Treasury yields are holding at elevated levels as investors ratchet rate cutting expectations lower, and equity futures are pointing toward another weak session as uncertainty grows around the economy’s potential performance under a second Trump administration. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s easing trajectory are pulling back after two influential officials said the central bank could take its time in cutting rates. In a speech given to business...

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